4:30 or Bust: A Quest for Marathon Mediocrity

Archive for the ‘Predictions’ Category

Gunnin’ for a PR Sunday

with 2 comments

Just thinking about my upcoming race on Sunday.  Will be running the Joe Kleinerman 10k, and I think my PR is within reach.  My PR was set in April 2007 (April Fools Day actually) at the Scotland Run, in 52:43.  In fact, I remember this day well because it was the day the March Madness Biathlon was going on in the park, and the day I was inspired to buy my bike and join in.  I subsequently bought my bike on June 7, and then participated in the Central Park Biathlon on Sept 16.  And in the intervening 3.5 years, I’ve raced 3 biathlons and 6 triathlons!

But back to my PR shot, 52:43 is 8:30 pace.  Last week I raced 8:27 pace for 5 miles in Prospect Park, so I’d only need to keep that pace up for 1.2 more miles!  Although the uphills in Central Park are tougher, the downhills are equally easier!  I’m looking forward to the challenge.

It will be my 6th Joe K 10k.  Here is my history:

  1. 12/11/94 – 1:02:21 (PR)
  2. 12/14/97 – 1:03:25
  3. 12/12/99 – 58:31
  4. 12/10/00 – 1:00:23
  5. 12/9/01 – 53:35 (PR)

Wow, didn’t realize I have not run this race in 9 years!  Good luck to all of you racing this weekend…

Written by SCL

December 3, 2010 at 5:04 pm

Posted in Predictions, running

4 Days to the Chicago Marathon

with one comment

4 days to the Chicago Marathon!  And I’m thinking about time predictions…

I’m very proud of my marathon history.  I’ve run 12 marathons over the last 14 years.  I have many that were disappointing for one reason or another, and many that were kick-ass awesome.  It is fun to periodically look through the results and just remember the races, the courses, the weather conditions on race day (I’ve seen it all), the trips to get to them, the hard work that went into certain ones.  There is a certain satisfaction in seeing the list ‘on paper’ as if it is a permanent record.  I’m really looking forward to adding Chicago to the record, and see where it falls.  My marathon history:

  1. 1996-11-03 – New York City Marathon – 5:27:31 (PR)
  2. 1998-11-01 – New York City Marathon – 5:35:33
  3. 2000-05-28 – Vermont City Marathon – 4:48:01 (PR)
  4. 2000-11-05 – New York City Marathon – 4:52:03
  5. 2002-04-28 – New Jersey Shore Marathon – 5:02:34
  6. 2002-11-03 – New York City Marathon – 5:06:22
  7. 2005-04-24 – Big Sur Marathon – 4:37:37 (PR)
  8. 2007-11-04 – New York City Marathon – 4:51:43
  9. 2008-11-02 – New York City Marathon – 4:31:25 (PR)
  10. 2009-02-15 – Austin Marathon – 4:22:16 (PR)
  11. 2009-11-01 – New York City Marathon – 4:44:05
  12. 2010-05-02 – Providence Rhode Races – 4:46:29

Historically, my proudest, and best, races have *always* been in the spring.  This includes Austin Marathon, which was February, technically winter, but it was in spring-like conditions (in Texas).  This is because I actually get a good, full, hard, cycle of training done in the months leading to the race.  My summer training never goes well, and that includes this year.  I know my training is not where it needs to be, or should be, for me to reach a 4:30 marathon, let alone a 4:22 PR.  With that expectation set, I’m ready for whatever I am able to do, and I look forward to my race in January (First Light Marathon), and my race in the spring (undetermined at this time) to properly ramp up my training and go for that PR.

My prediction has a lot to do with the weather, which is still a little bit of an unknown.  We know the temperatures will be in the 50’s to start, and rise to the 70’s.  Much of the race should be in the 60’s, which is a little on the warm side for me.  If the dewpoint creeps up to the upper 50’s, that will add complication and multiple minutes to my time.  That all said, if conditions are really good (low dewpoint, not a lot of running in the sun), I predict a time between 4:35 and 4:40.  If the humidity creeps up, or the temps are too high, or the sun is a factor, then I predict a time between 4:45 and 4:50.  Looking forward to seeing how it goes, and analyzing the results!

While in Chicago, I’ll be missing one of my favorite races, the Staten Island Half Marathon.  This is perhaps my 2nd favorite non-marathon NYRR race, behind the Brooklyn Half Marathon.  I love the ferry ride to SI, the great staging area they have at the baseball stadium, the usually great weather, and the relatively flat course, etc.  It was also my very first half marathon, back in 1996.  Here is my SI Half race history:

  1. 1996-09-15 – Staten Island Half Marathon – 2:17:54 (PR)
  2. 1997-09-21 – Staten Island Half Marathon – 2:24:45
  3. 1998-09-20 – Staten Island Half Marathon – 2:18:11
  4. 2000-10-15 – Staten Island Half Marathon – 2:15:37
  5. 2007-10-14 – Staten Island Half Marathon – 2:06:41
  6. 2008-10-12 – Staten Island Half Marathon – 2:00:20
  7. 2009-10-11 – Staten Island Half Marathon – 2:01:14

Interestingly enough, this is not a PR course for me.  Only time I PR’d it was my very first one.  I’m sure this is because it is a fall race, and I am *never* in my tip-top racing form in the fall.

Good luck to everyone racing in SI, I’m gonna miss it!

For reference, my full race history is here.

Previous Entries:  5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28

Written by SCL

October 6, 2010 at 12:57 pm